Amid the 2025 holiday sales competition, Walmart’s massive discount events and new consumer surveys signal a season defined by early shopping, price sensitivity, and strategic spending across retail.
The battle for the budget-conscious shopper has officially kicked off, dramatically intensifying the 2025 holiday sales competition.
Walmart is attempting to “own Black Friday” by launching an expansive three-event deal schedule and promising thousands of items under $20. This move is timed perfectly, as data shows 10% more consumers plan to shop BFCM than last year, viewing these events as a crucial “savings tactic.”
This confluence of aggressive retailer action and high consumer demand means sellers who fail to meet shoppers with compelling value and convenience will miss out on the most significant spending surge of the year.
Walmart Unveils Largest-Ever Black Friday Strategy and Schedule
Omnisend“U.S. shoppers are projected to spend $80 billion this season, driven primarily by 68% seeking discounts, 52% valuing free shipping, and 33% motivated by early access or limited-time offers.”
Walmart is significantly increasing its commitment to holiday discounting and aggressive marketing this year. The retailer announced its largest-ever Black Friday rollout, featuring three major Walmart Deals Events, alongside a new campaign called WhoKnewVille.
The company aims to establish itself as the definitive leader for the holiday season by offering up to 60% off top brands and thousands of items priced under $20. This expansive strategy represents one of the retailer’s most forceful holiday pushes to date.
Aggressive Deals Schedule
Walmart has structured its sales to cover nearly the entire back half of November, providing multiple opportunities for shoppers to find deals. The full calendar of events includes:
- November 14–16, with early access for Walmart+ members beginning November 13 at 7 p.m. ET.
- November 25–30, featuring online-only deals from November 25–27, followed by full access starting November 28, and early access on November 24 at 7 p.m. ET.
- December 1, as an online-only event with early access starting November 30 at 7 p.m. ET.
Major markdowns span high-demand categories including toys, electronics, fashion, and beauty, featuring brands such as Apple, LEGO, Dyson, and Levi’s. Notable offers include a 98-inch TCL 4K QLED TV for $998 and the Dyson V12 Slim Vacuum for $399.
Convenience and Narrative
Beyond pricing, Walmart is emphasizing speed and flexibility to meet modern consumer expectations. Shoppers can utilize multiple fulfillment methods, including curbside pickup, express delivery in 30 minutes or less, and two-day shipping. These options reinforce the company’s value promise while directly challenging the fulfillment experience set by Amazon.
Key Seller Lessons from Walmart's Aggressive Q4 Strategy
According to Will Haire, co-founder of BellaVix, Walmart’s campaign shows how sellers can combine sales with a compelling brand story to stand out during Q4. By creating a narrative around their deals, brands can connect with shoppers on a deeper level while driving conversions.
Early access remains one of Walmart’s strongest tools for building urgency and loyalty. Smaller sellers can adapt this strategy through exclusive bundles, limited-time deals, or early access perks for repeat customers.
Walmart’s omnichannel model also demonstrates the importance of meeting customers where they shop. Integrating delivery, pickup, and online engagement ensures convenience stays at the center of the buying journey.
For sellers, the takeaway is clear: deep discounts may drive clicks, but presentation and experience are what make shoppers return. Walmart’s 2025 Black Friday playbook proves that value and storytelling go hand in hand in the modern retail competition.
Retail Giants Target Budget-Strained Consumer Spending
Daniella Genovese wrote in her FoxBusiness article that Walmart’s launch of three major deals events comes as retailers target budget-conscious consumers navigating a tighter economy. The move aims to capture shoppers who are feeling the effects of inflation and slowing wage growth.
Economic indicators show mixed signals for retail spending. While August sales rose for a third straight month, data reveals that higher-income households are driving most of the gains, with the top 10% of earners now responsible for nearly half of total spending, according to Moody’s Analytics.
Middle-class consumers are becoming more selective, shopping more often but spending less per trip. Retailers are responding by emphasizing value, promoting private brands, and offering moderate discounts instead of the steep markdowns seen in previous years.
Industry analysts note that promotions this season may serve to balance tariff-related cost increases rather than deliver record-level savings. Inventory levels remain stable, reducing the pressure for deep clearance pricing.
Competition across retail continues to escalate. Amazon launched its Prime Day event in early October, and Best Buy followed with its “DoorBOOsters” campaign starting October 31, signaling that shoppers will see back-to-back promotions through the holiday stretch.
Walmart’s aggressive rollout underscores how major retailers are adapting to a consumer landscape defined by caution, value-seeking behavior, and increasing promotional overlap across the industry.
Forecasting Predicts Cautious, High-Value Holiday Spending
Bain & Company predicts healthy but below-average sales growth this season.
Retail sales during November and December are projected to reach over $975 billion, marking a healthy yet below-average year-over-year (YoY) increase of 4%. This growth forecast highlights persistent consumer caution, though rising wages and a robust stock market could still provide some upward momentum for sales.
Financial strain remains a significant factor, with severe credit delinquencies rising to their highest point since 2011, particularly among younger borrowers. Despite these pressures, stronger average hourly wage growth, which is outpacing inflation, gives many consumers improved confidence and purchasing power.
Ecommerce Growth Moderates
The momentum for sales is shifting slightly, with consumers expressing an intent to do more shopping in physical stores compared to last year. In-store sales are expected to see a 2.75% YoY growth, driven strongly by categories like clothing, accessories, and health and personal care.
In contrast, nonstore sales, which include e-commerce and mail orders, have slowed, showing a forecasted growth rate of 7%, down from 9–10% in previous years. Even with this moderation, nonstore sales are still predicted to account for a powerful 50% of the overall holiday sales growth, underscoring the enduring importance of online channels.
Strategies for Outperforming Competitors
This mixed economic outlook means leading retailers must strike a careful balance between offering value and enhancing the customer experience. To capture market share, the guidance is clear: retailers must go big on sales events and aggressively lead with sharp pricing on Key Value Items (KVI). High prices affect the budgets of 55% of shoppers, necessitating that sellers stress the value of their offerings over the simple price tag.
An Amazon agency assisting mid-market sellers should focus on delivering timely, personalized advertisements, as 30% more consumers are reportedly open to sponsored ads this year. Furthermore, while implementing new technologies like AI, sellers should still aim to keep their customer interactions “warmly human,” capitalizing on the anticipated rise in physical and experiential shopping.
Adobe Business"Mobile devices have cemented their dominance, as 2025 is poised to be the first full year mobile makes up more than 50% of online spend."
